At TenderAlpha, we constantly search for new insights and market opportunities by analyzing unique and underutilized data signals. With the inauguration of President Trump on January 20, 2025, and subsequent emergence of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), government contract cancellations have surged significantly, creating a unique environment for market analysis. We're thrilled to announce the launch of our latest resource: the Terminated Federal US Contracts dataset. This dataset shines a light on government contracts that were initially awarded but ultimately cancelled before completion.
Covering more than 54,000 terminated contracts involving publicly listed companies, our dataset highlights billions in potential revenues that never materialized, uncovering significant missed opportunities in federal spending. With historical data available from 2010 onward, analysts can easily perform robust financial analyses and backtesting.
📉 What's Included in the Dataset:
- Recent Highlights (2025): 1,689 contract terminations affecting listed companies, totaling $1.3 billion in unrealized revenue.
- Extensive Coverage: Over 54,500 terminated contracts with a cumulative $9.8 billion in unrealized revenue among publicly listed companies, plus 296,000+ terminations valued at $25.7 billion for private entities.
- Timely and Robust Data: 1-day lag in reporting, ensuring up-to-date insights and complete historical coverage since 2010.
Top Listed Firms by Unrealized Revenue for Q1 2025
- Ameresco: $139M
- IBM: $130M
- Accenture: $86M
Top 10 Companies by Historical Unrealized Revenue
| Company | Contracts | Unrealized Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Science Applications International Corporation | 1,401 | $1.73B |
| GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP | 271 | $1.19B |
| BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION | 54 | $1.09B |
| NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION | 521 | $1.08B |
| BOEING COMPANY (THE) | 852 | $747M |
| CACI INTERNATIONAL INC | 19 | $505M |
| AT&T INC. | 696 | $356M |
| HMS HOLDINGS CORP. | 1 | $283M |
| INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP | 41 | $220M |
| ESTERLINE TECHNOLOGIES CORP | 58 | $202M |
Evaluating Profit Potential: Do Cancelled Contracts Signal Stock Declines?
We conducted a straightforward analysis using this dataset to evaluate the potential profitability of short-selling stocks immediately following government contract cancellations. The rationale is simple: contract terminations often signal negative market sentiment, providing potential opportunities for traders.
Our Strategy:
- Short stocks directly following the announcement of a cancelled contract.
- Maintain the short position for exactly 5 trading days.
- Close and evaluate the position's performance.
Backtest Results:
- Winning Trades: 789 (74%)
- Losing Trades: 281 (26%)
- Average Return per Trade: 1.80%
- Median Return per Trade: 1.82%
- Best Trade Return: 47.10%
- Worst Trade Return: -32.12%
These findings strongly suggest that cancelled government contracts can serve as viable short-term bearish indicators, delivering positive returns with limited holding durations.
Final Thoughts
While our strategy has showcased promising initial results, we recommend combining these signals with comprehensive risk management practices and further in-depth analysis for live trading. TenderAlpha’s extensive datasets provide analysts and investors with actionable insights such as:
- Early downside risk identification from lost contracts at critical suppliers.
- Trading strategies using termination velocity and unrealized value as negative momentum indicators.
- Insights into revenue fragility within government-dependent sectors.
Leveraging our detailed datasets empowers investors to confidently identify and seize market opportunities, optimizing performance and managing risks effectively.
Explore the Terminated Federal Contracts dataset to spot missed revenues and short-side opportunities more easily. Reach out to receive a free sample.