The Forward-Looking Receivables feed by TenderAlpha can identify new players to the government procurement market, either smaller or large-cap ones. 

With regards to smaller businesses, it is possible to spot an increase in any of the USD-forward-looking-receivables time intervals that is material to the company’s last available revenue or any other fundamental financial indicator. 

By highlighting those companies that are evidently growing into the government procurement business, you can then test the strength of the UGR signal to determine whether contract awards may have an impact on the awardee’s stock price. 

One such company is Moderna. The pharmaceutical company gained prominence when it was announced that the US government had awarded it a contract worth USD 483 million for the development and testing of a Covid-19 vaccine. 

Since TenderAlpha monitors every contract award made either directly to a publicly-listed company or to its subsidiary on a daily basis, in this case, we have focused on analyzing the post-announcement stock price drift effect in the 3 days after the contract award announcement. 

Following the announcement Moderna’s share price recorded abnormal return for several days exhibiting share price increase inertia. Throughout the next 5 trading days the share price registered a 20% increase compared to the first trading day. Shares of the company were up 14% to USD 46.38 at 10:31 a.m. (17 April 2020). 

Furthermore, since the contract award Moderna’s stock has proven to be an exceptional performer from a market standpoint. Its shares’ return outperformed the NASDAQ index by 16% for the period of 16-27 April 2020 – 18,46% for Moderna vs. 2,36% for NASDAQ. 

Learn more about the ways in which you can use forward-looking government receivables data here.